Election 2006

Some comments and predictions on the closest Senate races, based on a review of available polls and TradeSports spreads:

Connecticut -

Lieberman [D, Incumbent]
Lamont [D, Challenger]
Schlesinger [R, Also Ran]

After Lamont beat Lieberman with hard left support in the Democratic primary, incumbent Lieberman turned the tables handily with the large field of moderate Connecticut voters.

Calling this for Lieberman

Pennsylvania -

Santorum [R, Incumbent]
Casey [D, Challenger]

Santorum’s major problems are a tendency to insert his foot squarely in his mouth over cultural issues in a moderate-liberal state and a very popular opponent with good name recognition in State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.

Calling this for Casey

Virginia -

Allen [R, Incumbent]
Webb [D, Challenger]

George Allen has managed in less than a year to go from leading contender for the GOP Presidential nomination to struggling to hang onto his Senate seat thanks in large part to a perceived racial insensitivity and his worse than worthless attempts to solve that situation.

Calling this for Webb

New Jersey -

Robert Menendez [D, Incumbent]
Thomas Kean [R, Challenger]

Even a close win for Democrats in this race is actually a bright spot in the election for Republicans, who are otherwise sweating just to maintain their own incumbent’s seats.

Calling this for Menendez.

Maryland -

Michael S. Steele [R]
Ben Cardin [D]
Kevin Zeese [G,L,P]

Calling this for Cardin

Missouri -

Talent [R, Incumbent] 37
McCaskill [D, Challenger] 56

Talent faces a real challenge in Missouri where recent Senate races have been very close and the challenger is a well known, relatively popular politician who has run for statewide office as often as Talent in recent years and won as many times. Several ballot initiatives including a controversial Constitutional amendment on stem cell research and cloning could increase turnout, especially with those ideologically predisposed to one of the candidates.

Too close to call, leaning toward Talent

Tennessee -

Harold Ford [D]
Bob Corker [R]

Calling this for Corker

Rhode Island -

Lincoln Chafee [R, Incumbent]
Sheldon Whitehouse [D, Challenger]

Lincoln Chafee, a liberal Republican, spent a lot of campaign funds fighting off a primary challenge by conservative Steve Laffey.

Calling this for Whitehouse

Ohio -

Mike DeWine [R, Incumbent]
Sherrod Brown [D, Challenger]

DeWine has been hurt by a number of minor controversies and recently by association with Rep. Bob Ney who just pled guilty to corruption charges and resigned from Congress.

Calling this for Brown

Montana -

Conrad Burns [R, Incumbent] 14
Jon Tester [D, Challenger] 76

Burns biggest challenge is a perceived guilt by association in the Abramoff lobbying scandal.

Calling this for Tester

Senate races

The Republican Party faces a tough year with bipartisan scandals like the Abramoff affair being blamed largely on the GOP [see update at bottom] and new problems arising almost daily. Particularly vulnerable are Republicans in Democratic states including conservative Rick Santorum who trails a popular Democrat in Pennsylvania, liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island who faces opposition both within the GOP and from the Democracts and moderate Republican Mike DeWine of Ohio who is suffering from scandals and, ironically, tax increases in the local Republican Governor’s administration.

“At this point, Democratic gains appear to be inevitable,” Mr. Rothenberg told his newsletter subscribers last week.

Thirty-three Senate seats are at stake this year, 18 held by Democrats and a Democratic-leaning independent and 15 by Republicans. Three of the seats most at risk next year are held by Republicans in heavily Democratic states. They are:

World Peace Herald

2006 election,election,GOP,Senate

An individual left a comment here, which I have deleted, calling me a liar. This is my microphone, so that won’t be tolerated. That said, I would refer that individual to The Washington Post:

Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid wrote at least four letters helpful to Indian tribes represented by Jack Abramoff, and Reid’s staff had frequent contact with the disgraced lobbyist’s team about legislation.

The activities — detailed in previously unreported billing records and correspondence — occurred over three years as Reid (D-Nev.) collected nearly $68,000 in political donations from Abramoff’s firm, lobbying partners and clients.

The Post is most certainly not a Republican Party organ or prone to parroting GOP “talking points”. For those interested in parroting Howard Dean’s Sunday talk show talking points, I suggest doing that on your own site. On this one, we’re going to stick with facts.