Election 2006

Some comments and predictions on the closest Senate races, based on a review of available polls and TradeSports spreads:

Connecticut –

Lieberman [D, Incumbent]
Lamont [D, Challenger]
Schlesinger [R, Also Ran]

After Lamont beat Lieberman with hard left support in the Democratic primary, incumbent Lieberman turned the tables handily with the large field of moderate Connecticut voters.

Calling this for Lieberman

Pennsylvania -

Santorum [R, Incumbent]
Casey [D, Challenger]

Santorum’s major problems are a tendency to insert his foot squarely in his mouth over cultural issues in a moderate-liberal state and a very popular opponent with good name recognition in State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.

Calling this for Casey

Virginia -

Allen [R, Incumbent]
Webb [D, Challenger]

George Allen has managed in less than a year to go from leading contender for the GOP Presidential nomination to struggling to hang onto his Senate seat thanks in large part to a perceived racial insensitivity and his worse than worthless attempts to solve that situation.

Calling this for Webb

New Jersey -

Robert Menendez [D, Incumbent]
Thomas Kean [R, Challenger]

Even a close win for Democrats in this race is actually a bright spot in the election for Republicans, who are otherwise sweating just to maintain their own incumbent’s seats.

Calling this for Menendez.

Maryland -

Michael S. Steele [R]
Ben Cardin [D]
Kevin Zeese [G,L,P]

Calling this for Cardin

Missouri -

Talent [R, Incumbent] 37
McCaskill [D, Challenger] 56

Talent faces a real challenge in Missouri where recent Senate races have been very close and the challenger is a well known, relatively popular politician who has run for statewide office as often as Talent in recent years and won as many times. Several ballot initiatives including a controversial Constitutional amendment on stem cell research and cloning could increase turnout, especially with those ideologically predisposed to one of the candidates.

Too close to call, leaning toward Talent

Tennessee -

Harold Ford [D]
Bob Corker [R]

Calling this for Corker

Rhode Island -

Lincoln Chafee [R, Incumbent]
Sheldon Whitehouse [D, Challenger]

Lincoln Chafee, a liberal Republican, spent a lot of campaign funds fighting off a primary challenge by conservative Steve Laffey.

Calling this for Whitehouse

Ohio -

Mike DeWine [R, Incumbent]
Sherrod Brown [D, Challenger]

DeWine has been hurt by a number of minor controversies and recently by association with Rep. Bob Ney who just pled guilty to corruption charges and resigned from Congress.

Calling this for Brown

Montana -

Conrad Burns [R, Incumbent] 14
Jon Tester [D, Challenger] 76

Burns biggest challenge is a perceived guilt by association in the Abramoff lobbying scandal.

Calling this for Tester

Senate races

Michigan Citizens for Life, a group not associated with Right to Life of Michigan, is pushing an initiative petition to change the state constitution to define life as beginning at conception. Right to Life is not supporting the initiative.

The effort to give legal standing to embryos and fetuses in Michigan has picked up supporters across the state as an early July deadline to collect at least 317,757 valid signatures of Michigan voters approaches.

South Bend Tribune

abortion,abortion petition,abortion election

Minnesota 5th Congressional District Representative Martin Sabo (Democrat) announced his retirement Saturday March 18. He will have served 14 terms in the United States House of Representatives:

Today, I’m announcing that I will retire at the end of my 14th term in the U.S. House of Representatives. After 46 years in elective office – 28 in the U.S. House of Representatives and 18 in the Minnesota Legislature, I’ve decided that it is time to move on.
It has been a long and very rewarding career. I was first elected to the Minnesota House in 1960, when I was 22, and to Congress in 1978. I’ve been on the ballot every two years since 1960. That’s 23 campaigns.

Now, at age 68, it’s time to stop. In my gut, I know the time is right. It’s time to open the door for a new generation of leadership.

As I prepare to close my career in elective office, I want to first and foremost thank my wife Sylvia. She has been by my side for 42 years. Without her love, support, enthusiasm, and friendship, I could not have done it. To my daughters, Karin and Julie, thank you for your love and understanding. And thank you for the greatest gift – the grandchildren who brighten our lives every day.

I also want to thank the great people of Minnesota. It is hard to say enough good about Minnesota. It was 50 years ago that Minneapolis welcomed me – a farm boy from the far corner of North Dakota, the son of immigrant parents – as I arrived here to attend Augsburg College. Minneapolis has been my home ever since.

Being able to serve Minnesotans has been an unimaginable dream. I’ve been a “Man of the House” throughout my adult life, representing Minnesotans in the “People’s House” – the legislative body closest to the people – first in St. Paul and then in Washington. The good common sense, concern, and understanding of Minnesotans has made serving them an honor and privilege. I will always be grateful for the strong support I’ve received year after year.

California 24th District Representative Elton Gallegly (Republican) announced his retirement last week, creating a situation that will leave his name facing a lone opponent, an unknown 37-year old lawyer, in the GOP primary and an almost sure win for that opponent in the general election in November.

In a set of circumstances that has stunned local Republicans, Rep. Elton Gallegly’s name will remain on the ballot despite his surprise announcement Friday — the deadline to file for re-election — that unspecified health problems were forcing him to withdraw.

Gallegly, a 10-term Republican, apparently thought that his withdrawal meant the filing deadline would be extended and other candidates could get into the race in the strongly GOP district north of Los Angeles.

CA Congressman Retirement Brings GOP Turmoil

New York 24th District Representative Sherwood “Sherry” Boehlert [Republican] announced his retirement Friday. Democrats are hopeful that they will be able to pick up the seat in upstate New York, but Boehlert, a liberal Republican, had been labeled a “RINO” or “Republican in Name Only” by the free market oriented Club for Growth and often voted outside party lines on economic and environmental issues.

‘There are other things to challenge my free time,’ Boehlert said. ‘I`m not tired, but I would rather not work 25 hours a day, eight days a week.’

Congressman announces retirement

Congress,Sabo,Gallegly,Boehlert

Democrats nationally, including Andrew White at Daily Kos, are excited by attorney Kirsten Gillibrand’s challenge to incumbent Congressman John Sweeney (Republican) in New York’s 20th Congressional District.

New York’s popular and outspoken Attorney General Elliott Spitzer had this to say:

“Kirsten Gillibrand is committed to making government more accountable and responsive to the needs and concerns of its citizens. Kirsten will be a tireless and effective advocate for the people of the 20th Congressional District. She is truly a rising star among a new generation of leadership in New York State.”

Gillibrand held a $249,035.44 to $103,409.77 fundraising advantage for the fourth quarter, unusual for a challenger.

Thanks to 20TrueBlue for the tip on the race.

The Republican Party faces a tough year with bipartisan scandals like the Abramoff affair being blamed largely on the GOP [see update at bottom] and new problems arising almost daily. Particularly vulnerable are Republicans in Democratic states including conservative Rick Santorum who trails a popular Democrat in Pennsylvania, liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island who faces opposition both within the GOP and from the Democracts and moderate Republican Mike DeWine of Ohio who is suffering from scandals and, ironically, tax increases in the local Republican Governor’s administration.

“At this point, Democratic gains appear to be inevitable,” Mr. Rothenberg told his newsletter subscribers last week.

Thirty-three Senate seats are at stake this year, 18 held by Democrats and a Democratic-leaning independent and 15 by Republicans. Three of the seats most at risk next year are held by Republicans in heavily Democratic states. They are:

World Peace Herald

2006 election,election,GOP,Senate

An individual left a comment here, which I have deleted, calling me a liar. This is my microphone, so that won’t be tolerated. That said, I would refer that individual to The Washington Post:

Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid wrote at least four letters helpful to Indian tribes represented by Jack Abramoff, and Reid’s staff had frequent contact with the disgraced lobbyist’s team about legislation.

The activities — detailed in previously unreported billing records and correspondence — occurred over three years as Reid (D-Nev.) collected nearly $68,000 in political donations from Abramoff’s firm, lobbying partners and clients.

The Post is most certainly not a Republican Party organ or prone to parroting GOP “talking points”. For those interested in parroting Howard Dean’s Sunday talk show talking points, I suggest doing that on your own site. On this one, we’re going to stick with facts.