Election 2006

Some comments and predictions on the closest Senate races, based on a review of available polls and TradeSports spreads:

Connecticut -

Lieberman [D, Incumbent]
Lamont [D, Challenger]
Schlesinger [R, Also Ran]

After Lamont beat Lieberman with hard left support in the Democratic primary, incumbent Lieberman turned the tables handily with the large field of moderate Connecticut voters.

Calling this for Lieberman

Pennsylvania -

Santorum [R, Incumbent]
Casey [D, Challenger]

Santorum’s major problems are a tendency to insert his foot squarely in his mouth over cultural issues in a moderate-liberal state and a very popular opponent with good name recognition in State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr.

Calling this for Casey

Virginia -

Allen [R, Incumbent]
Webb [D, Challenger]

George Allen has managed in less than a year to go from leading contender for the GOP Presidential nomination to struggling to hang onto his Senate seat thanks in large part to a perceived racial insensitivity and his worse than worthless attempts to solve that situation.

Calling this for Webb

New Jersey -

Robert Menendez [D, Incumbent]
Thomas Kean [R, Challenger]

Even a close win for Democrats in this race is actually a bright spot in the election for Republicans, who are otherwise sweating just to maintain their own incumbent’s seats.

Calling this for Menendez.

Maryland -

Michael S. Steele [R]
Ben Cardin [D]
Kevin Zeese [G,L,P]

Calling this for Cardin

Missouri -

Talent [R, Incumbent] 37
McCaskill [D, Challenger] 56

Talent faces a real challenge in Missouri where recent Senate races have been very close and the challenger is a well known, relatively popular politician who has run for statewide office as often as Talent in recent years and won as many times. Several ballot initiatives including a controversial Constitutional amendment on stem cell research and cloning could increase turnout, especially with those ideologically predisposed to one of the candidates.

Too close to call, leaning toward Talent

Tennessee -

Harold Ford [D]
Bob Corker [R]

Calling this for Corker

Rhode Island -

Lincoln Chafee [R, Incumbent]
Sheldon Whitehouse [D, Challenger]

Lincoln Chafee, a liberal Republican, spent a lot of campaign funds fighting off a primary challenge by conservative Steve Laffey.

Calling this for Whitehouse

Ohio -

Mike DeWine [R, Incumbent]
Sherrod Brown [D, Challenger]

DeWine has been hurt by a number of minor controversies and recently by association with Rep. Bob Ney who just pled guilty to corruption charges and resigned from Congress.

Calling this for Brown

Montana -

Conrad Burns [R, Incumbent] 14
Jon Tester [D, Challenger] 76

Burns biggest challenge is a perceived guilt by association in the Abramoff lobbying scandal.

Calling this for Tester

Senate races